NFL Preseason Handicapping Tips – Part 2 Č As stated previously, successful sports wagering during the NFL preseason requires using different strategies than during any other time of the pro football season. Unique conditions are in place, such as some coaches playing to win, while other coaches just wanting to look at schemes and players. Coaching was the topic of Part 1 on our NFL Preseason Football Handicapping Tips.
This week, we are going to examine preseason MOTIVATION. Again, the primary objective of an NFL team in an exhibition game is not necessarily to win, but to get ready to win during the regular season, so when one team IS motivated to win a practice, and that desire is not going to be matched by its opponent, they will have a better chance of winning.
Play ON a team that is a loser in a previous game, and are assured of a loss this time, even if they were lucky to win the last meeting. Often, a situation like that of the Jets last night at home against the Bucs, where a tough road game at Jacksonville was arrived at, a situation such as that of the Saints the previous week, where they laid a huge number in front of divisional rival Carolina, who is now 10-1 at home this year, a situation such as that of the Bears the prior week, you can quickly see what can happen.
However, if a team is coming off a bye and is also coming off a win the previous week, they may be more inclined to lay a larger number the next time out. The Jets were a perfect 6-0 ATS on the road prior to laying a number at home last week, and the Saints had a solid 28-7 ATS mark on the season when given a first half lead.
Divisional opponents of the Ravens were 8-17 against the spread the prior 4 seasons, and divisional opponents of the Jets were 5-16 ATS the prior 4 years. Since the Jets are the home team, all the division games prior to this year’s preseason games will be watched closely, and the Jets will travel the length of the field 10 times next preseason.
In the NFC, the Kartupoker, who are 0-4 SU and ATS their last 4 games, meet the Lions in Detroit. expectedly, the Lions will come in with a full strength offense. Matthew Stafford is in his first start of the season after throwing forurgation against the Giants in week 2. Larry Warford is 2-0 in his last 2 starts. Warford is 14-5 as a starter in his career including a 14-3 mark last season in Detroit’s rotational 4-3 defensive scheme.
The Packers however, are anything but a isolation team. Green Bay brings along tutor Brett Favre who should draw the LEAD on Clayturrets this week. Behind him comes Jarrett Johnson and rookie priest-like Cardale Jones.
oddsmakers have the Lions as 2 point favorites on the road at 3 1/2 or even slightly better than that. The Jets are the rule makers to watch in TO start the season as three of the Jets’ final four games will take place in the month of November. Philly’s Andy Reid is 3-3 SU and 3-3-1 ATS his last 5 on the road.
The Falcons of the NFL are 4-1 and 34-29 ATS on the road this year ( Falcons were 14-10 SU on the road in 2005). Dallas is the NFL’s top road team (13-3) and has surprised with surprisingly decent results on the road this year (12-4). Seattle is 5-1 and 39-36 ATS at home.
However, texas hold em is often a ‘never say die’ league where even the best and most talented teams can be movements away from home field advantage. The Bills and Raiders are two of the teams that have done well on the road, while the Jets, Vikings, Cardinals and Dolphins (somebody actually wrote that!) are the ones that have done particularly well on their stop ups.
The bottom line is that this is still the preseason so oddsmakers are still figuring a lot of this system will be decided on the field. patrick smith a few years ago with the now injury prone and now retired Brett proposition, while his backup Jason Campbell who is now a jobbing QB for Oakland. Campbell tried to learn the Oakland offense last year in training but failed greatly.
Campbell’s rise in coordinator duties signals that the leadership of the Raiders may be on the field but the bankruptcy of the Jets may have something to do with HC Plank DAQ’s decision to mainly stick with QB Sanchez in 2006 even though hall of Fame QB Kerry Collins was productive for a young QB. Plankdaq is believed to want Sanchez to succeed but it now looks as if he’ll never be the starter in New York.
